Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -10000 ACU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +31 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -20.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -20.5 (+10.5) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -19.4 (+11.6) | 150.7 (-5.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -20.0 (+11.0) | 149.2 (-4.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -21.2 (+9.8) | 145.3 (-0.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#16) | -0.4 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#53) | 0.53 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#56) | 0.44 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#38) | 0.534 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 41.4% |
Game Analysis
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