Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -10000 PENN +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +19 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -27.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -25.9 (-6.9) | 134.6 (-21.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -25.4 (-6.4) | 135.2 (-22.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -23.4 (-4.4) | 136.1 (-23.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -21.7 (-2.7) | 135.2 (-22.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#54) | -12.4 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#142) | -2.01 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#132) | -2.90 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#121) | 0.377 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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