Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK -750 ETAM +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +8 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -17.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -14.3 (-6.3) | 156.6 (+17.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -12.3 (-4.3) | 149.5 (+24.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-2 | 4-10 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 86.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#139) | -1.4 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#94) | -0.32 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#85) | -0.45 (#182) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 31.2% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 3.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 58.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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