Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -1600 COLU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLU +10 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -8.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.9 (-18.9) | 147.0 (+23.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.6 (-15.6) | 145.7 (+24.3) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 1-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#153) | 6.9 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#110) | 2.06 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#93) | 2.74 (#11) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 44.8% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 42.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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