Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +35 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -23.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -23.8 (+11.2) | 149.6 (-30.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -20.2 (+14.8) | 149.6 (-30.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -21.9 (+13.1) | 149.1 (-30.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -22.8 (+12.2) | 151.2 (-32.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#35) | -7.4 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#26) | 0.22 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#31) | -0.36 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#103) | 0.529 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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