Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -5000 UNA +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +28 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -17.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -18.3 (+9.7) | 148.2 (-6.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -17.2 (+10.8) | 146.4 (-4.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -18.4 (+9.6) | 147.8 (-5.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -17.7 (+10.3) | 147.8 (-5.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#56) | -3.4 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#60) | -0.99 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#63) | -1.38 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#71) | 0.463 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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