Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -5000 UTA +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -16.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -18.1 (-1.1) | 143.6 (-2.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -16.6 (+0.4) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -16.9 (+0.1) | 144.0 (-3.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -17.7 (-0.7) | 145.1 (-4.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#50) | -1.6 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#46) | -0.33 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#44) | -0.45 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#64) | 0.500 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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