Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +35 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -26.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -23.8 (+11.2) | 132.0 (-9.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -21.6 (+13.4) | 133.0 (-10.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -26.0 (+9.0) | 130.0 (-7.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -26.2 (+8.8) | 127.8 (-4.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 80.0 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#52) | -12.7 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#25) | -2.66 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#27) | -3.32 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#23) | 0.424 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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