Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | HAW +215 TCU -267 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +14 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -4.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-38.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -3.2 (-10.8) | 147.8 (-31.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -1.8 (-12.2) | 148.8 (-32.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -2.0 (-12.0) | 150.1 (-34.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -1.2 (-12.8) | 152.1 (-36.1) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#143) | 11.0 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#119) | 2.06 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#120) | 2.52 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#147) | 0.522 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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