Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -1600 MTSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +37 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -16.5 (+20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -13.3 (+23.7) | 127.8 (-22.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.9 (+24.1) | 128.2 (-23.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.7 (+24.3) | 127.1 (-22.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -12.1 (+24.9) | 128.4 (-23.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-0 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#82) | -5.7 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#98) | -1.04 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#88) | -1.03 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#48) | 0.447 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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