Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MD -8000 NICH +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MD -11.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -14.8 (-8.8) | 145.7 (-5.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -13.1 (-7.1) | 141.8 (-1.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -12.6 (-6.6) | 142.9 (-2.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -11.8 (-5.8) | 145.8 (-5.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#98) | -2.3 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#212) | 0.13 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#195) | -0.25 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#219) | 0.527 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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