Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | DRKE -2500 ALCN +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +37 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -22.6 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -20.3 (+16.7) | 150.9 (-3.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -19.6 (+17.4) | 151.7 (-4.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -22.9 (+14.1) | 152.1 (-5.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -24.5 (+12.5) | 149.8 (-2.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 7-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#79) | -11.6 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#27) | -2.60 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#38) | -3.46 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#34) | 0.399 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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