Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -1600 CHSO +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -17.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -12.1 (+0.9) | 137.1 (-6.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -12.7 (+0.3) | 137.2 (-6.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -13.5 (-0.5) | 135.6 (-4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -12.8 (+0.2) | 136.1 (-5.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#158) | -12.2 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#184) | -2.99 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#182) | -4.55 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#162) | 0.378 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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