Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | MICH +130 FLA -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +5 | 207 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -2.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (+41.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -1.6 (-3.4) | 154.1 (+52.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -1.8 (-3.2) | 155.8 (+51.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -1.8 (-3.2) | 157.2 (+49.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -1.5 (-3.5) | 156.5 (+50.5) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-10 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L9 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 85.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#60) | 10.4 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#95) | 1.29 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#80) | 1.94 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#57) | 0.578 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 44.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 16.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 42.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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