Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -8000 MRMK +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +16 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -18.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -21.2 (-5.2) | 143.0 (-29.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -17.3 (-1.3) | 142.4 (-28.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -16.7 (-0.7) | 142.5 (-28.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -17.8 (-1.8) | 144.7 (-30.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-3 |
| Home | 16-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#22) | -0.7 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#76) | -0.06 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#65) | 0.18 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#94) | 0.497 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 43.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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