Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -175 WCU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | WCU -5.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -1.9 (+0.9) | 139.3 (-14.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -4.5 (+3.5) | 141.1 (-16.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -4.5 (+3.5) | 140.6 (-15.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -4.0 (+3.0) | 140.7 (-15.7) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-10 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#300) | 2.4 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#271) | 1.24 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#277) | 1.01 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#270) | 0.552 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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