Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SC -600 WIN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SC -9.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SC -8.4 (+1.6) | 140.0 (-6.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -10.2 (-0.2) | 143.0 (-9.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -10.5 (-0.5) | 143.8 (-9.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -10.8 (-0.8) | 142.6 (-8.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#77) | 1.6 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#6) | 0.32 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.18 (#7) | 0.64 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#20) | 0.517 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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