Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | INST -2500 TNST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | INST -22.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -20.1 (+0.9) | 154.9 (+4.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -19.1 (+1.9) | 152.9 (+6.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -21.6 (-0.6) | 151.9 (+7.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -20.9 (+0.1) | 152.3 (+6.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-4 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#18) | -3.8 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#18) | -0.67 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#22) | -0.09 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#36) | 0.436 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.6% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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