Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MISS -1000 TROY +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +21 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -10.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -7.7 (+13.3) | 146.3 (-19.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -10.7 (+10.3) | 147.0 (-20.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -9.9 (+11.1) | 147.7 (-20.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -10.4 (+10.6) | 148.9 (-21.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#108) | -1.6 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#3) | -1.88 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.11 (#8) | -1.55 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#18) | 0.386 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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