Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | HAW +110 NEV -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +6 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -1.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -0.6 (-5.4) | 144.8 (-6.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -0.6 (-6.6) | 141.9 (-3.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.1 (-6.1) | 141.9 (-3.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -0.3 (-5.7) | 144.3 (-6.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#122) | 9.2 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#56) | 2.24 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#66) | 2.75 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#97) | 0.596 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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