Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | JKST -515 NCAT +365 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -9.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (-32.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -6.9 (+1.1) | 147.2 (-19.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -7.7 (+0.3) | 151.8 (-23.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -7.3 (+0.7) | 151.5 (-23.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -6.7 (+1.3) | 150.2 (-22.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-2 | 4-7 |
| Away | 7-13 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#266) | -14.1 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#172) | -2.60 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#215) | -4.04 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#118) | 0.391 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 59.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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