Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO +110 HOW -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -4.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -4.0 (+5.0) | 143.0 (+14.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -3.4 (+4.4) | 141.8 (+15.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -3.2 (+4.2) | 141.9 (+15.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -2.7 (+3.7) | 143.6 (+13.4) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-5 |
| Home | 7-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#271) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#304) | -0.53 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#302) | -0.44 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#170) | 0.482 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 9.9% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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