Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -2400 IDHO +1150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +18 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -10.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -11.6 (+6.4) | 147.5 (-1.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -7.5 (+10.5) | 144.9 (+1.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -6.5 (+11.5) | 144.3 (+1.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -6.9 (+11.1) | 146.1 (-0.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#146) | -3.8 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#219) | -0.27 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#204) | -0.81 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#259) | 0.468 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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