Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | BOIS -900 CSUF +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -14.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -11.0 (+12.0) | 130.2 (+22.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -11.8 (+11.2) | 132.2 (+20.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -12.8 (+10.2) | 133.0 (+20.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -11.6 (+11.4) | 131.1 (+21.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#86) | -3.8 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#74) | 0.74 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#77) | 0.63 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#50) | 0.550 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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