Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | ACU -120 UTEP +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +6 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -5.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+33.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -3.7 (+2.3) | 136.2 (+33.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -2.7 (+3.3) | 137.0 (+33.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -3.7 (+2.3) | 135.9 (+34.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -4.3 (+1.7) | 139.9 (+30.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#229) | -3.7 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#244) | -0.67 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#212) | -0.78 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#241) | 0.467 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 23.0% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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