Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -125 PEPP +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +22 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -0.1 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -0.8 (+22.8) | 143.5 (+4.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -1.1 (+20.9) | 144.7 (+3.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -1.2 (+20.8) | 145.7 (+2.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -1.4 (+20.6) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 5-11 |
| Home | 7-11 | 9-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#276) | -0.8 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#315) | -1.38 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#320) | -1.55 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.384 (#338) | 0.416 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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