Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -2000 ALCN +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +18 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -18.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -14.0 (+4.0) | 153.9 (+28.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -15.5 (+2.5) | 154.8 (+27.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -15.0 (+3.0) | 155.8 (+26.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -14.7 (+3.3) | 154.8 (+27.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | -11.8 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#233) | -2.45 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#194) | -3.36 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#202) | 0.406 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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