Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | ORE -195 SYR +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +20 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -4.6 (-24.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -3.1 (-23.1) | 147.3 (-1.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -2.7 (-22.7) | 146.6 (-0.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -2.1 (-22.1) | 149.0 (-3.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -1.9 (-21.9) | 149.2 (-3.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#48) | 4.5 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#64) | 1.68 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#66) | 2.22 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#38) | 0.632 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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