Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -600 PORT +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +28 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -12.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -10.9 (+17.1) | 148.0 (+6.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -10.5 (+17.5) | 149.9 (+4.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -10.6 (+17.4) | 148.0 (+6.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -10.9 (+17.1) | 149.5 (+4.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#55) | -4.1 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#13) | -0.12 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.27 (#13) | -0.34 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#11) | 0.494 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 40.7% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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