Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SLU +160 LT -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | LT -8.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -5.8 (+6.8) | 136.0 (+13.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -5.4 (+6.4) | 137.4 (+11.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -5.4 (+6.4) | 136.7 (+12.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -5.3 (+6.3) | 138.9 (+10.1) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-4 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#261) | 8.6 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#160) | 2.29 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#166) | 3.05 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#149) | 0.602 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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