Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | XAV -700 WIN +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -11.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -13.3 (+2.7) | 153.0 (-19.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -10.1 (+5.9) | 151.2 (-17.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -10.4 (+5.6) | 152.3 (-18.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -10.2 (+5.8) | 151.6 (-17.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#54) | 1.9 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#153) | 0.51 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#107) | 0.81 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#107) | 0.524 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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