Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | MISS -155 CAL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -4.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -4.0 (+6.0) | 143.3 (+22.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -5.7 (+4.3) | 142.4 (+23.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -4.3 (+5.7) | 143.3 (+22.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -4.4 (+5.6) | 144.1 (+21.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#117) | -1.2 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#2) | -1.41 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.19 (#4) | -1.33 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#14) | 0.431 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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