Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | IONA +333 JOES -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +25 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -7.7 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -4.6 (-20.4) | 135.3 (+5.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -8.2 (-16.8) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -6.8 (-18.2) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -7.5 (-17.5) | 134.6 (+6.4) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#187) | 6.8 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#265) | 1.98 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#252) | 3.29 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#272) | 0.557 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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