Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +210 SMC -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -3.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.0 (+2.0) | 130.7 (+5.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -3.7 (+1.7) | 133.2 (+2.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -4.0 (+2.0) | 134.5 (+1.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -3.5 (+1.5) | 131.3 (+4.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-1 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-0 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 60.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#132) | 6.1 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#184) | 0.71 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#187) | 1.22 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#177) | 0.573 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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