Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -24.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | BYU -7000 GAST +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +32 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -28.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -25.4 (+6.6) | 154.8 (-14.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -23.9 (+8.1) | 151.5 (-11.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -26.3 (+5.7) | 152.1 (-12.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -27.4 (+4.6) | 153.4 (-13.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 22.9 (#2) | -0.8 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#15) | -0.25 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.21 (#15) | -0.49 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#16) | 0.476 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.04 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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