Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | TENN -500 NCSU +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -7.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -4.4 (+4.6) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -5.0 (+4.0) | 144.2 (+4.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -4.6 (+4.4) | 147.2 (+1.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -4.4 (+4.6) | 149.5 (-0.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#16) | 7.4 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#18) | 2.22 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.18 (#16) | 3.00 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#18) | 0.586 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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