Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | OU -7000 GB +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +34 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | OU -22.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -21.4 (+12.6) | 136.4 (-8.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -18.2 (+15.8) | 136.4 (-8.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -18.9 (+15.1) | 137.0 (-9.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -19.8 (+14.2) | 135.3 (-7.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#18) | -3.1 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#12) | -0.59 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.72 (#10) | -1.31 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#28) | 0.449 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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