Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -1600 ECU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -16.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -13.0 (-8.0) | 149.4 (-14.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -11.7 (-6.7) | 150.3 (-15.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -12.8 (-7.8) | 151.6 (-16.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -12.2 (-7.2) | 150.5 (-15.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-9 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#32) | -4.5 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#76) | -0.67 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#61) | -0.76 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#63) | 0.447 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 16.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 41.7% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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