Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
| Money | WIS -2800 JXST +1250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -19.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -17.8 (-2.8) | 127.4 (+7.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -17.1 (-2.1) | 133.9 (+1.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -18.0 (-3.0) | 132.9 (+2.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -18.2 (-3.2) | 131.5 (+3.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#25) | -2.4 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#28) | -1.27 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#20) | -0.93 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#27) | 0.402 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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