Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -4500 STMN +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -22.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -18.8 (-13.8) | 133.4 (+29.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -18.2 (-13.2) | 136.0 (+27.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -19.6 (-14.6) | 136.2 (+26.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -19.8 (-14.8) | 135.2 (+27.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#10) | -0.2 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#13) | -0.15 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.86 (#9) | -0.17 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#4) | 0.455 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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