Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | INST -425 TAR +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | INST -11.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -10.0 (+6.0) | 141.3 (+16.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -8.5 (+7.5) | 143.2 (+14.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -8.1 (+7.9) | 141.9 (+16.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -10.9 (+5.1) | 142.4 (+15.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#244) | -15.8 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#288) | -1.38 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#289) | -3.21 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#338) | 0.478 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 27.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 31.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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