Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -30.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SF -25000 MERC +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +28 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SF -23.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -21.9 (+6.1) | 131.4 (+14.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -21.8 (+6.2) | 132.3 (+13.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -20.3 (+7.7) | 133.4 (+12.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -19.1 (+8.9) | 131.4 (+14.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 17-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#59) | -8.8 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#67) | -0.75 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#62) | -2.03 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#105) | 0.480 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 25.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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