Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -2000 CARK +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +19 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -24.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -19.3 (-0.3) | 146.6 (+24.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -17.5 (+1.5) | 146.1 (+24.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -20.0 (-1.0) | 146.2 (+24.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -20.3 (-1.3) | 145.9 (+25.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#112) | -15.0 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#102) | -4.91 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#120) | -7.31 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#120) | 0.276 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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