We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Stan Sheriff Center · December 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread HAW -19.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money HAW -2000 / CARK +1050
Model Predictions
Spread Total HAW win
Actual HAW +19 171 Won
Massey HAW -24.4 (-5.4) — —
Massey Totals — 145.0 (+26.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 100% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ HAW -19.3 (-0.3) 146.6 (+24.4) 90% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML HAW -17.5 (+1.5) 146.1 (+24.9) 91% ✓
Baseline ML HAW -20.0 (-1.0) 146.2 (+24.8) 91% ✓
Baseline Plus ML HAW -20.3 (-1.3) 145.9 (+25.1) 90% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HAW CARK
Overall 20-14 9-23
Conference 11-9 5-11
Home 13-6 5-10
Away 4-6 4-13
Neutral 3-2 0-0
Last 5 4-1 0-5
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 71.8 70.2
Avg Pts Against 69.3 80.3
Massey 3.7 (#112) -15.0 (#353)
Bradley-Terry 0.93 (#102) -4.91 (#362)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.03 (#120) -7.31 (#362)
RPI 0.537 (#120) 0.276 (#362)
Shooting & Four Factors HAW CARK
FG% 47.0% 38.7%
3PT% 36.3% 33.3%
REB / G 35.6 35.9
OREB / G 8.0 11.9
AST / TO 0.93 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.3% 45.0%
TOV% 19.0% 19.4%
ORB% 24.2% 30.2%
FT Rate 28.0% 19.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.7% 53.3%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 17.4%
DRB% 75.4% 64.2%
Opp FT Rate 24.1% 26.0%

Game Analysis

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