Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | STAN -1100 USD +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -4.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -3.8 (+20.2) | 147.5 (+4.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -2.6 (+21.4) | 143.0 (+9.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -2.1 (+21.9) | 144.1 (+7.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -2.7 (+21.3) | 145.8 (+6.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#217) | -0.2 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#298) | -0.10 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#300) | -0.37 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#329) | 0.480 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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