Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -1400 OAK +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -12.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -13.8 (-15.8) | 147.6 (+6.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -10.9 (-12.9) | 143.6 (+10.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -10.8 (-12.8) | 143.0 (+11.0) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -10.9 (-12.9) | 145.8 (+8.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2020 | XAV 101 – 49 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#38) | 5.0 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#119) | 0.60 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#72) | 0.81 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#64) | 0.595 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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