Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -155 UIC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -7.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -2.1 (+3.1) | 141.2 (-26.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -5.2 (+6.2) | 140.7 (-25.7) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -4.3 (+5.3) | 142.7 (-27.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -4.7 (+5.7) | 142.7 (-27.7) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#110) | 11.8 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#75) | 3.16 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#95) | 4.95 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#125) | 0.714 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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