Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | VCU +550 ISU -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -27.2 (+23.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -13.3 (+9.3) | 133.3 (-1.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -12.6 (+8.6) | 134.5 (-2.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -16.1 (+12.1) | 134.5 (-2.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -15.4 (+11.4) | 133.2 (-1.2) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-6 | 18-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 61.5 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#188) | 26.4 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#141) | 1.29 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#130) | 1.73 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#100) | 0.527 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 53.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 2.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 38.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 30.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 80.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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