Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -111 OU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +12 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -0.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -0.0 (-12.0) | 153.7 (-7.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -0.1 (-11.9) | 151.5 (-5.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -0.3 (-12.3) | 150.4 (-4.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -0.4 (-11.6) | 154.5 (-8.5) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#13) | 13.4 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#74) | 1.06 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#78) | 1.32 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#43) | 0.516 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 3.11 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 8.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 38.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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