Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +125 BC -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | BC -10.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -8.6 (+11.6) | 144.1 (-5.1) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -6.9 (+9.9) | 143.3 (-4.3) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BC -5.7 (+8.7) | 143.7 (-4.7) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -7.3 (+10.3) | 144.5 (-5.5) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#272) | 6.1 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#316) | 2.50 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#319) | 3.84 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#296) | 0.636 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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