Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UNI +250 TTU -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | TTU -5.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -7.4 (+5.4) | 138.5 (+3.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -5.5 (+3.5) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -6.2 (+4.2) | 140.1 (+1.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -5.8 (+3.8) | 141.4 (+0.6) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#197) | 3.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#325) | 0.41 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.45 (#325) | 0.46 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#294) | 0.549 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.7% | 14.0% |
Game Analysis
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